Don’t Blame the Polls – The New York Times

Don’t Blame the Polls – The New York Times


I asked around among political scientists and turnout modelers before the 2016 election, but no one was really sure. The best they could say was that the low-income, uninsured population are usually not big voters, and that probably wasn’t going to change because of Obamacare.

But, over the last year, several major studies have been able to answer the question with more evidence, and they found that, in fact, giving people Medicaid insurance — a big part of the Obamacare expansion — did increase their civic engagement. People who got Medicaid really were more likely to vote, at least for one election cycle.

That might seem academic, except that Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion is continuing. At least four more states look poised to expand after this week’s midterm election. And the evidence suggests that those new expansions could cause a small Obamacare turnout bump in 2020.

Read Margot’s story here: When Medicaid Expands, More People Vote

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About 48 hours after the first polls closed, we are still waiting for some results. Here are a few marquee races that remain undecided, and a few that have been called today:

Florida: Why are we not surprised? A recount is coming in the Senate race, where the margin between Bill Nelson and Rick Scott is now holding around 0.25 points. (Anything under 0.5 triggers an automatic recount.) But that’s not all — in the governor’s race, which the A.P. called on election night for the Republican Ron DeSantis, Andrew Gillum is down by just 0.54 points as of this afternoon. A recount is possible there, too.

Arizona Senate: There are more than 600,000 votes to be counted in the race between Martha McSally and Kyrsten Sinema, according to The Arizona Republic. Ms. McSally, the Republican, currently has a lead of around 17,000 votes.

California House seats: There are five competitive congressional races still to be called in California. All five seats are currently held by Republicans, and Democrats are leading in two.

The latest calls: Two close House races were called today, both flips for Democrats: Lucy McBath in Georgia’s Sixth, and Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico’s Second.



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